FC Istiklol vs Homs Al-Fidaa SC
Match details. AFC Challenge League. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. FC Istiklol have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. Homs Al-Fidaa SC have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D D.
The numbers. FC Istiklol score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Istiklol average 10.8 shots (3.3 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Homs Al-Fidaa SC score 1.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last six away, with five clean sheets. Homs Al-Fidaa SC average 8.8 shots (3.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 26% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Homs Al-Fidaa SC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Homs Al-Fidaa SC the likelier winners; Homs Al-Fidaa SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Homs Al-Fidaa SC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17, 87% on the records (FC Istiklol: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Homs Al-Fidaa SC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Istiklol 0-1 Homs Al-Fidaa SC (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).