IK Sirius vs AIK
Match details. Allsvenskan. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. IK Sirius have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. AIK have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L.
The numbers. IK Sirius score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. IK Sirius average 5.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game. AIK score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. AIK average 5.2 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 63% against the records' 31%.
The read. No firm call: IK Sirius are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make IK Sirius the likelier winners; IK Sirius are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 78% on the records (IK Sirius: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; AIK: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 9). Backup: IK Sirius Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: IK Sirius 2-1 AIK (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).