AMIAMI

20:45Thu 29 Oct

THI

Amiens vs Thionville US Lusitanos

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. Ligue 3, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de la Licorne, Amiens.

What's at stake. Amiens are 7th on 16 points after 10 games, level on points with Le Puy Foot, 1 point clear of Cannes. A win would take them above Le Puy Foot. Thionville US Lusitanos are 12th on 12 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Quevilly, level on points with Bastia. A win would take them above Quevilly.

Form. Amiens have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D. Thionville US Lusitanos have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.

The numbers. Amiens score 1.3 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and four games without a goal. Amiens average 0.6 corners and 0.4 cards a game. Thionville US Lusitanos score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Thionville US Lusitanos average 0.1 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 58% against the records' 33%.

The read. No firm call: Amiens are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Amiens the likelier winners; Amiens are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Amiens are a clear winner, no Unders); Thionville US Lusitanos Under 1.5 goals (Thionville US Lusitanos's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Amiens 1-1 Thionville US Lusitanos (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

AMIENS GOALS

Amiens Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.17

AMI 6 of 10 (60%) · THI 3 of 5 (60%)78.1%

Amiens scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thionville US Lusitanos conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · Amiens: only games against sides at Thionville US Lusitanos's level · Thionville US Lusitanos: only games against sides at Amiens's level

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.09

AMI 10 of 10 (100%) · THI 5 of 5 (100%)98.3%

Amiens: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thionville US Lusitanos: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores · Amiens: only games against sides at Thionville US Lusitanos's level · Thionville US Lusitanos: only games against sides at Amiens's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.16

AMI 10 of 10 (100%) · THI 5 of 5 (100%)98.3%

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.41

AMI 9 of 10 (90%) · THI 3 of 5 (60%)75%

Amiens: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thionville US Lusitanos: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · Amiens: only games against sides at Thionville US Lusitanos's level · Thionville US Lusitanos: only games against sides at Amiens's level

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (Amiens are a clear winner - no Unders); Thionville US Lusitanos Under 1.5 goals (Thionville US Lusitanos's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Amiens are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Amiens are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.7%

Amiens goals →

Thionville US… goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AMIENSDWDWDWWLLD1.60 PPG

THIONVILLE US LUSITANOSLLLDLDDWWW1.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AMIENS HOMExTHIONVILLE US LUSITANOS AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.500.40CONCEDED A GAME1.6060%CLEAN SHEETS20%40%FAILED TO SCORE20%0.57CORNERS A GAME0.000.43CARDS A GAME0.13

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.60POINTS A GAME0.75+0.90GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.50–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.210LEAGUE GAMES8

Amiens: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

AMIENS 2:0 HANDICAP

–

389 OF 413

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

76%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

48%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

99%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AMIENS OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

THIONVILLE US LUSITANOS OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AMIENSxTHIONVILLE US LUSITANOS

5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME0.600.40CONCEDED A GAME2.001.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Amiens have scored in 60% of their games.

Thionville US Lusitanos have scored in 80% of their games.

Amiens kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

Thionville US Lusitanos kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards