Match details. FA Trophy, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Deal Town have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Deal Town have gone W W. Hashtag United have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition Hashtag United have gone W W.
The numbers. Deal Town score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Hashtag United score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 15% against the records' 42%.
The read. No firm call: Deal Town are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Deal Town the likelier winners; Deal Town are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Deal Town 2-1 Hashtag United (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).