Bridlington Town vs Curzon Ashton FC
Match details. FA Trophy, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bridlington Town have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Bridlington Town have gone W W. Curzon Ashton FC have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Curzon Ashton FC have gone W.
The numbers. Bridlington Town score four and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Curzon Ashton FC score two and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Curzon Ashton FC average 8.8 shots (4.0 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 25% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: Bridlington Town are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bridlington Town the likelier winners; Bridlington Town are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bridlington Town. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Curzon Ashton FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Bridlington Town); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bridlington Town 2-1 Curzon Ashton FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).