Match details. FA Trophy, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Aveley FC have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L. In this competition Aveley FC have gone W. Carshalton Athletic FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L.
The numbers. Aveley FC score 2.1 and concede two a game in their last seven at home, with one clean sheet. Aveley FC average 14.0 shots (6.3 on target), 8.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Carshalton Athletic FC score two and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Carshalton Athletic FC average 15.0 shots (7.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Aveley FC have won one, drawn four and lost one. One of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, three were drawn and Carshalton Athletic FC won one. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Aveley FC 0-0 Carshalton Athletic FC.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 49% against the records' 28%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%; five of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The read. No firm call: Aveley FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Aveley FC the likelier winners; Aveley FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Five of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Aveley FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Aveley FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Aveley FC 1-1 Carshalton Athletic FC (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).