Match details. CONMEBOL Libertadores, Women. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Club Libertad have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. Club Nacional Montevideo have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W W.
The numbers. Club Libertad score 2.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Club Libertad average 14.1 shots (7.2 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Club Nacional Montevideo score two and concede one a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Club Nacional Montevideo average 17.4 shots (8.2 on target), 6.8 corners and 0.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The case against. Club Nacional Montevideo's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Club Libertad to win. Their goals for and against make Club Libertad the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Club Libertad.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Club Nacional Montevideo or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Club Libertad); Club Nacional Montevideo or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Club Libertad). Predicted score: Club Libertad 2-1 Club Nacional Montevideo (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).