Itagui Leones FC vs Orsomarso SC
Match details. Torneo DIMAYOR, Clausura - 15. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 21:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui.
What's at stake. Itagui Leones FC are 15th on 14 points after 14 games, level on points with Orsomarso, 1 point clear of Barranquilla. A win would take them above Orsomarso. Orsomarso SC are 14th on 14 points after 14 games, 2 points behind Internacional Palmira, level on points with Leones FC. A win would take them above Internacional Palmira.
Form. Itagui Leones FC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. In this competition Itagui Leones FC have gone L W D D L L. Orsomarso SC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L D. In this competition Orsomarso SC have gone L D W L D L.
The numbers. Itagui Leones FC score 0.8 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Itagui Leones FC average 4.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Orsomarso SC score 0.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and seven games without a goal. Orsomarso SC average 3.7 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Itagui Leones FC have won five, drawn three and lost two. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Itagui Leones FC won two, one was drawn and Orsomarso SC won one. The last time they met, on 12 May 2026, it finished Itagui Leones FC 2-0 Orsomarso SC.
Where it pulls both ways. Orsomarso SC are the form side, but the meetings favour Itagui Leones FC: in the last ten meetings, Itagui Leones FC won five, Orsomarso SC won two and three were drawn.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 77% on the records (Itagui Leones FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Orsomarso SC: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Itagui Leones FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Orsomarso SC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Itagui Leones FC 1-1 Orsomarso SC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).