Al Arabi vs Nejmeh SC
Match details. AFC Challenge League, Group Stage. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time. It is played at Hisor Central Stadium.
Form. Al Arabi have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L. In this competition Al Arabi have gone L L. Nejmeh SC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. In this competition Nejmeh SC have gone L W.
The numbers. Al Arabi score 1.5 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Al Arabi average 9.7 shots (3.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Nejmeh SC score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Nejmeh SC average 8.0 shots (3.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 0.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Al Arabi have won one, drawn one and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 12 Dec 2023, it finished Al Arabi 2-1 Nejmeh SC: Al Arabi had 9 shots to 11, 57% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Al Arabi's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Nejmeh SC to win. A tight game. Nejmeh SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Nejmeh SC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Nejmeh SC at 1.35, 80% on the records (Nejmeh SC unbeaten in 4 of 5 away; Al Arabi failed to win 8 of 10). Leave: Nejmeh SC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Al Arabi Under 1.5 goals (Al Arabi's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Al Arabi Over 0.5 Goals (Nejmeh SC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Al Arabi 0-1 Nejmeh SC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).