Karlbergs BK vs Umea FC
Karlbergs BK scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Umea FC conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Karlbergs BK: only games against sides at Umea FC's level · Umea FC: only games against sides at Karlbergs BK's level
Match details. Ettan. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Karlbergs BK have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L. Umea FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W.
The numbers. Karlbergs BK score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Karlbergs BK average 4.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Umea FC score 1.8 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Umea FC average 5.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Umea FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Umea FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Umea FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 76% on the records (Karlbergs BK: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Umea FC: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Umea FC or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.33. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Karlbergs BK 1-2 Umea FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).