Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 Lagos time. It is played at Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, Osaka.
What's at stake. Cerezo Osaka are 13th on 13 points after 11 games, level on points with Nagoya Grampus, 1 point clear of V-varen Nagasaki. A win would take them above Nagoya Grampus. JEF United Chiba are 20th on 6 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Avispa Fukuoka. A win would take them above Avispa Fukuoka.
Form. Cerezo Osaka have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D L. In this competition Cerezo Osaka have gone D L D D L D. JEF United Chiba have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L D. In this competition JEF United Chiba have gone L D D L D W.
The numbers. Cerezo Osaka score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Cerezo Osaka average 12.8 shots (3.2 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. JEF United Chiba score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. JEF United Chiba average 12.5 shots (4.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Cerezo Osaka have won one, drawn two and lost two. Three of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Cerezo Osaka won one, two were drawn and JEF United Chiba won one. The last time they met, on 3 Nov 2016, it finished Cerezo Osaka 0-3 JEF United Chiba.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%; three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. JEF United Chiba's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Cerezo Osaka to win. Cerezo Osaka are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cerezo Osaka.
The bets. Best bet: Cerezo Osaka or Draw at 1.21, 72% on the records (Cerezo Osaka unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; JEF United Chiba failed to win 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: JEF United Chiba Over 0.5 goals (Cerezo Osaka's own games don't back it (1 of 5)). Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 1-0 JEF United Chiba (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).