Match details. Copa Venezuela, Round of 16. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 00:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas.
What's at stake. Club Atletico Barinas are 2nd on 13 points after 6 games, level on points with Zamora FC, 6 points clear of Atletico el Vigia FC. A win would take them above Zamora FC. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. UCV FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W W. Club Atletico Barinas have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. UCV FC score one and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. UCV FC average 13.6 shots (4.4 on target), 5.5 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Club Atletico Barinas score two and concede 0.8 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Club Atletico Barinas average 16.9 shots (6.3 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Club Atletico Barinas Over 0.5 Goals (UCV FC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: UCV FC 1-1 Club Atletico Barinas (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).