Cumbaya FC vs CD El Nacional
Match details. Serie B, Relegation Group - 9. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Cumbaya FC are 10th on 26 points after 22 games, 1 point behind LDU Portoviejo, 11 points clear of 22 de Julio. A win would take them above LDU Portoviejo. CD El Nacional are 12th on 12 points after 22 games, 3 points behind 22 de Julio. A win would take them level on points with 22 de Julio. Cumbaya FC have nothing left to play for. CD El Nacional have nothing left to play for. It is played over two legs.
Form. Cumbaya FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W. In this competition Cumbaya FC have gone W D L W W L. CD El Nacional have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition CD El Nacional have gone L W L L L W.
The numbers. Cumbaya FC score two and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. CD El Nacional score 1.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Cumbaya FC have won five, drawn three and lost two. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Cumbaya FC won three and CD El Nacional won one. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished Cumbaya FC 3-0 CD El Nacional.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 69% against the records' 49%.
The read. No firm call: Cumbaya FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Cumbaya FC the likelier winners; Cumbaya FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cumbaya FC; the meetings favour Cumbaya FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Cumbaya FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Cumbaya FC Over 0.5 Goals (Cumbaya FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (Cumbaya FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Cumbaya FC 2-1 CD El Nacional (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).