Match details. Liga e Pare. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
Form. KF Besa Peje have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W. KF Tefik Canga have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. KF Besa Peje score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. KF Tefik Canga score 0.7 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. KF Tefik Canga average 2.0 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The case against. KF Tefik Canga's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. KF Besa Peje to win. Their goals for and against make KF Besa Peje the likelier winners; KF Besa Peje are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour KF Besa Peje.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: KF Besa Peje 2-1 KF Tefik Canga (10% chance).
The agreed story. KF Besa Peje or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).