Merthyr Town vs Morecambe FC
Match details. National League North, National League North - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Merthyr Town are 15th on 15 points after 12 games, level on points with Scarborough Athletic, level on points with Marine. A win would take them above Scarborough Athletic. Morecambe FC are 19th on 14 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Brackley Town, 2 points clear of Radcliffe. A win would take them above Brackley Town.
Form. Merthyr Town have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D. Morecambe FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W.
The numbers. Merthyr Town score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Merthyr Town average 5.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Morecambe FC score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Morecambe FC average 4.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Morecambe FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Morecambe FC or Draw (1UP) (no result call); Double Chance: Draw or Morecambe FC (no result call). Predicted score: Merthyr Town 1-1 Morecambe FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).