Match details. National League North, National League North - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Hednesford Town are 7th on 18 points after 12 games, 2 points behind South Shields, level on points with Hebburn Town. A win would take them above South Shields. Spalding United are 9th on 17 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Hebburn Town, level on points with Chorley. A win would take them above Hebburn Town.
Form. Hednesford Town have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Spalding United have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D.
The numbers. Hednesford Town score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hednesford Town average 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Spalding United score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Spalding United average 4.4 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
The case against. Spalding United's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Hednesford Town to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Hednesford Town the likelier winners; Hednesford Town are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Hednesford Town. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 76% on the records (Hednesford Town: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 9; Spalding United: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Backup: Hednesford Town or Both Teams Score at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Hednesford Town or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Spalding United Under 1.5 goals (Spalding United's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Hednesford Town 2-1 Spalding United (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).