Chelmsford City vs Tonbridge Angels
Match details. National League South, National League South - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Chelmsford City are 15th on 14 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Horsham, level on points with Hemel Hempstead Town. A win would take them above Horsham. Tonbridge Angels are 6th on 20 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Truro City, level on points with Dagenham & Redbridge. A win would take them above Truro City.
Form. Chelmsford City have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. Tonbridge Angels have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. Chelmsford City score 1.5 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Chelmsford City average 4.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Tonbridge Angels score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tonbridge Angels average 5.5 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Chelmsford City have won four, drawn four and lost two. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Chelmsford City won two, one was drawn and Tonbridge Angels won one. The last time they met, on 26 Jan 2026, it finished Chelmsford City 1-0 Tonbridge Angels.
Where it pulls both ways. Tonbridge Angels are the form side, but the meetings favour Chelmsford City: in the last ten meetings, Chelmsford City won four, Tonbridge Angels won two and four were drawn.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.48, 74% on the records (Chelmsford City: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Tonbridge Angels: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Chelmsford City or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Tonbridge Angels or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Chelmsford City 1-1 Tonbridge Angels (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).