Match details. Liga Premier Serie A, Apertura - 1. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 22:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Club Calor are 6th on 12 points after 7 games, 3 points clear of Guerreros. Guerreros Del Pacífico FC are 8th on 9 points after 7 games, 5 points clear of Real Apodaca.
Form. Club Calor have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. Guerreros Del Pacífico FC have won two, drawn two and lost three of their last seven, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W L.
The numbers. Club Calor score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Club Calor average 6.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Guerreros Del Pacífico FC score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Guerreros Del Pacífico FC average 3.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
The case against. Guerreros Del Pacífico FC's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. Club Calor to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Club Calor the likelier winners; Club Calor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Club Calor. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Club Calor or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Club Calor Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Club Calor 2-1 Guerreros Del Pacífico FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).