Canberra Croatia FC vs Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks scored under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Canberra Croatia FC conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 8 at home · both last 10: 55%
Match details. Australian Championship, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 Lagos time. It is played at Deakin Stadium, Canberra.
What's at stake. Canberra Croatia FC are 3rd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Lions. A win would take them above Lions. Sutherland Sharks are 4th on 0 points after 1 game, 2 points behind Wollongong Wolves. A win would take them above Wollongong Wolves.
Form. Canberra Croatia FC have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Sutherland Sharks have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L D. In this competition Sutherland Sharks have gone L.
The numbers. Canberra Croatia FC score 2.5 and concede 1.1 a game in their last eight at home, with five clean sheets. Canberra Croatia FC average 13.9 shots (6.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Sutherland Sharks score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sutherland Sharks average 12.2 shots (5.0 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 58%.
The read. No firm call: Canberra Croatia FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Canberra Croatia FC the likelier winners; Canberra Croatia FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Canberra Croatia FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 84% on the records (Canberra Croatia FC: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8 at home; Sutherland Sharks: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Sutherland Sharks Over 0.5 Goals (Canberra Croatia FC's own games don't back it (3 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Canberra Croatia FC 2-1 Sutherland Sharks (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).