Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AL Minaa are 12th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Diyala, level on points with Mosul. A win would take them above Diyala. AL Karma are 1st on 24 points after 10 games, 2 points clear of Naft.
Form. AL Minaa have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L D. In this competition AL Minaa have gone L W D L D L. AL Karma have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. In this competition AL Karma have gone D W W W W W.
The numbers. AL Minaa score 1.5 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. AL Minaa average 5.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game. AL Karma score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. AL Karma average 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings AL Minaa have won two, drawn none and lost two. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 1 Mar 2026, it finished AL Minaa 2-0 AL Karma.
The case against. AL Minaa's record still gives them 26% to win.
The read. AL Karma to win. A tight game. AL Karma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Karma. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%. Four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or AL Karma at 1.17, 71% on the records (AL Karma unbeaten in 10 of 10; AL Minaa failed to win 3 of 6 at home). Backup: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: AL Karma or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); AL Karma or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AL Minaa 0-1 AL Karma (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).