Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AL Karkh are 17th on 8 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Gharraf, level on points with Al Kahrabaa. A win would take them above Gharraf. AL Mosul SC are 15th on 11 points after 10 games, level on points with Ghaz Al Shamal, 1 point clear of Gharraf. A win would take them above Ghaz Al Shamal.
Form. AL Karkh have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L. In this competition AL Karkh have gone D L W W L L. AL Mosul SC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition AL Mosul SC have gone W L L L L D.
The numbers. AL Karkh score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. AL Karkh average 2.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game. AL Mosul SC score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. AL Mosul SC average 3.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings AL Karkh have won one, drawn one and lost none. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 3 Apr 2026, it finished AL Karkh 2-1 AL Mosul SC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make AL Karkh the likelier winners, but AL Mosul SC are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. AL Mosul SC's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. AL Karkh or the draw. Their goals for and against make AL Karkh the likelier winners; AL Mosul SC are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AL Karkh 1-1 AL Mosul SC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).