Al Zawraa vs Al Shorta SC
Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Al Zawraa are 4th on 18 points after 10 games, 3 points behind Newroz, level on points with Erbil. A win would take them level on points with Newroz. Al Shorta SC are 6th on 17 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Erbil, 3 points clear of Al-Jolan SC. A win would take them above Erbil.
Form. Al Zawraa have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Al Zawraa have gone L L W W W D. Al Shorta SC have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W. In this competition Al Shorta SC have gone D D W D W D.
The numbers. Al Zawraa score 2.2 and concede none a game in their last five at home, with five clean sheets. Al Zawraa average 3.9 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Al Shorta SC score one and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and three games without a goal. Al Shorta SC average 5.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Al Shorta SC's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Al Zawraa to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Al Zawraa the likelier winners; Al Zawraa are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, 76% on the records (Al Zawraa: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Al Shorta SC: under 3.5 goals in 10 of 10). Leave: Al Shorta SC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Al Zawraa); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Al Zawraa 1-0 Al Shorta SC (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).