Alecrim RN vs Mossoro
Match details. Potiguar, 2. Divisao. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time.
Form. Alecrim RN have won three, drawn one and lost four of their last eight league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L W L. Mossoro have won three, drawn one and lost three of their last seven league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L L W L.
The numbers. Alecrim RN score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Alecrim RN average 3.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Mossoro score 1.1 and concede one a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Mossoro average 8.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
The case against. Mossoro's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Alecrim RN to win. A tight game. Alecrim RN are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alecrim RN. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Alecrim RN 1-0 Mossoro (13% chance).
The agreed story. Alecrim RN or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).