NBNEF

16:00Sat 24 Oct

TUR

Neftchi Baku PFC vs Turan Tovuz

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Neftçi Arena, Baku. The referee is A. Aliyev.

What's at stake. Neftchi Baku PFC are 2nd on 17 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Sabah FA, level on points with Qarabag. A win would take them above Sabah FA. Turan Tovuz are 5th on 14 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Zira, 1 point clear of Şamaxı FK. A win would take them above Zira.

Form. Neftchi Baku PFC have won five, drawn two and lost one of their last eight, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W W. In this competition Neftchi Baku PFC have gone D D W W W L. Turan Tovuz have won four, drawn two and lost two of their last eight, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. In this competition Turan Tovuz have gone L W W D W L.

The numbers. Neftchi Baku PFC score 2.6 and concede one a game over their last eight, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Turan Tovuz score 0.9 and concede 0.6 a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Neftchi Baku PFC have won three, drawn five and lost two. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Neftchi Baku PFC won one, one was drawn and Turan Tovuz won two. The last time they met, on 9 Mar 2026, it finished Neftchi Baku PFC 0-1 Turan Tovuz.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 61% against the records' 37%.

The read. No firm call: Neftchi Baku PFC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Neftchi Baku PFC the likelier winners; Neftchi Baku PFC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 5.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Neftchi Baku PFC 1-1 Turan Tovuz (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

TURAN TOVUZ GOALS

Turan Tovuz Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.24

NEF 6 of 8 (75%) · TUR 6 of 8 (75%)73.5%

Turan Tovuz scored under 1.5 in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 6 of 6 · Turan Tovuz: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Turan Tovuz's level

Turan Tovuz Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

NEF 5 of 8 (62%) · TUR 5 of 8 (62%)54%

Turan Tovuz scored in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC conceded in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · H2H 5 of 6 · Turan Tovuz: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Turan Tovuz's level

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.34

NEF 7 of 8 (88%) · TUR 5 of 8 (62%)68.8%

Neftchi Baku PFC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Turan Tovuz: the bet landed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 6 · on half-time scores · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Turan Tovuz's level · Turan Tovuz: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner - no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.6%

Neftchi Baku PFC goals →

Turan Tovuz goals ↓

0-08%

1-011%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.5%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 8

NEFTCHI BAKU PFCWWLWWWDD2.12 PPG

TURAN TOVUZWDLWDWWL1.75 PPG

THE NUMBERS

NEFTCHI BAKU PFC HOMExTURAN TOVUZ AWAY

2.62SCORED A GAME0.881.00CONCEDED A GAME0.6238%CLEAN SHEETS50%25%FAILED TO SCORE38%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.60POINTS A GAME1.33+0.60GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00+0.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.01.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.05LEAGUE GAMES6

Turan Tovuz: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

34%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

35%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

86%

OKAY · 85/90

NEFTCHI BAKU PFC OR DRAW

88%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

TURAN TOVUZ OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

NEFTCHI BAKU PFCxTURAN TOVUZ

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME0.601.20CONCEDED A GAME0.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.460%OVER 1.5 GOALS20%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%40%BOTH SCORE20%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–10.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

NEFTCHI BAKU PFC 3 · 30%DRAW 5TURAN TOVUZ 2 · 20%

5 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2023-12-10Neftchi Baku PFC 3 – 2 Turan Tovuz

2024-02-24Neftchi Baku PFC 1 – 1 Turan Tovuz

2024-04-28Neftchi Baku PFC 3 – 0 Turan Tovuz

2024-08-03Neftchi Baku PFC 0 – 0 Turan Tovuz

2024-12-21Neftchi Baku PFC 1 – 1 Turan Tovuz

2025-03-10Neftchi Baku PFC 1 – 1 Turan Tovuz

2025-05-10Neftchi Baku PFC 2 – 1 Turan Tovuz

2025-08-29Neftchi Baku PFC 0 – 1 Turan Tovuz

TRENDS

Neftchi Baku PFC failed to score in 25% of their games.

Turan Tovuz failed to score in 38% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headleague table