Match details. Australian Championship, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 09:30 Lagos time. It is played at Adelaide City Park.
What's at stake. Adelaide City FC are 3rd on 1 point after 1 game. APIA Leichhardt are 4th on 1 point after 1 game.
Form. Adelaide City FC have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. APIA Leichhardt have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D.
The numbers. Adelaide City FC score 2.5 and concede 0.3 a game in their last six at home, with five clean sheets. Adelaide City FC average 14.1 shots (6.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game. APIA Leichhardt score 1.5 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. APIA Leichhardt average 13.2 shots (5.6 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The case against. APIA Leichhardt's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Adelaide City FC to win. Their goals for and against make Adelaide City FC the likelier winners; Adelaide City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Adelaide City FC.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Adelaide City FC Over 0.5 Goals (APIA Leichhardt's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: Adelaide City FC 1-0 APIA Leichhardt (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).