SPAIN AMATEUR - TERCERA FEDERACION, GROUP 14

SVSPV

19:00Wed 21 Oct

CDZ

SP Villafranca vs CD Zafra

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14, Group 14 - 5. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. SP Villafranca are 8th on 9 points after 6 games, level on points with Cabeza Buey, 1 point clear of Puebla Calzada. A win would take them above Cabeza Buey. CD Zafra are 10th on 8 points after 6 games, level on points with Puebla Calzada, level on points with Montijo. A win would take them above Puebla Calzada.

Form. SP Villafranca have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L L W. CD Zafra have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L D D L W.

The numbers. SP Villafranca score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. SP Villafranca average 13.3 shots (4.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. CD Zafra score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Zafra average 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.

The case against. CD Zafra's record still gives them 35% to win.

The read. SP Villafranca to win. A tight game. SP Villafranca are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SP Villafranca. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SP Villafranca 1-0 CD Zafra (9% chance).

The agreed story. SP Villafranca or the draw, a tight game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

SP Villafranca or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPV 4 of 5 (80%) · CDZ 5 of 6 (83%)74.2%

SP Villafranca: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · CD Zafra: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

SP Villafranca or Both Teams ScorePAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPV 4 of 5 (80%) · CDZ 4 of 6 (67%)57%

SP Villafranca: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · CD Zafra: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPV 5 of 5 (100%) · CDZ 6 of 6 (100%)97%

SP Villafranca: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · CD Zafra: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPV 4 of 5 (80%) · CDZ 5 of 6 (83%)82.7%

SP Villafranca: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · CD Zafra: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.78

SPV 3 of 5 (60%) · CDZ 3 of 6 (50%)37%

SP Villafranca: both scored in 3 of 5 at home · CD Zafra: both scored in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 55% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

SP VILLAFRANCA GOALS

SP Villafranca Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPV 4 of 5 (80%) · CDZ 4 of 6 (67%)57%

SP Villafranca scored in 4 of 5 at home · CD Zafra conceded in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

CD ZAFRA GOALS

CD Zafra Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.43

CDZ 4 of 6 (67%) · SPV 4 of 5 (80%)53.7%

CD Zafra scored in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · SP Villafranca conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 68% · SP Villafranca: only games against sides at CD Zafra's level

Left off the list: SP Villafranca or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); SP Villafranca or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 9.3%

SP Villafranca goals →

CD Zafra goals ↓

0-010%

1-09%

2-06%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SP VILLAFRANCAWWWDLWLLWW1.90 PPG

CD ZAFRAWWLDDL1.33 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SP VILLAFRANCA HOMExCD ZAFRA AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.171.40CONCEDED A GAME1.0030%CLEAN SHEETS33%17%FAILED TO SCORE33%3.00CORNERS A GAME4.002.67CARDS A GAME3.00

TRENDS

SP Villafranca have scored in 90% of their games.

CD Zafra have scored in 67% of their games.

SP Villafranca kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

CD Zafra kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards