AC Bellinzona vs SC Bruhl St Gallen
Match details. Promotion League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AC Bellinzona are 18th on 5 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Luzern II. A win would take them above Luzern II. SC Bruhl St Gallen are 13th on 14 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Kreuzlingen, 2 points clear of Lugano II. A win would take them above Kreuzlingen.
Form. AC Bellinzona have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W. In this competition AC Bellinzona have gone L L D L W L. SC Bruhl St Gallen have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L D. In this competition SC Bruhl St Gallen have gone W L L L D L.
The numbers. AC Bellinzona score 0.7 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and six games without a goal. AC Bellinzona average 3.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game. SC Bruhl St Gallen score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. SC Bruhl St Gallen average 4.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings AC Bellinzona have won three, drawn three and lost none. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, AC Bellinzona won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 26 Mar 2022, it finished AC Bellinzona 1-0 SC Bruhl St Gallen.
Where it pulls both ways. SC Bruhl St Gallen are the form side, but the meetings favour AC Bellinzona: in the last six meetings, AC Bellinzona won three and three were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Bellinzona 1-1 SC Bruhl St Gallen (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).