SPSAO

23:00Wed 21 Oct

ECB

Sao Paulo FC SP vs EC Bahia BA

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Copa do Brasil, Women. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 23:00 Lagos time.

Form. Sao Paulo FC SP have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W. EC Bahia BA have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.

The numbers. Sao Paulo FC SP score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sao Paulo FC SP average 13.2 shots (4.5 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game. EC Bahia BA score 3.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. EC Bahia BA average 15.3 shots (7.2 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game.

The case against. Sao Paulo FC SP's record still gives them 43% to win.

The read. EC Bahia BA to win. Their goals for and against make EC Bahia BA the likelier winners; EC Bahia BA are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Sao Paulo FC SP 1-2 EC Bahia BA (10% chance).

The agreed story. EC Bahia BA or the draw, goals in between.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SAO 5 of 6 (83%) · ECB 10 of 10 (100%)91.7%

Sao Paulo FC SP: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · EC Bahia BA: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Bahia BA's level

Over 1.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 84%

1.19

SAO 4 of 6 (67%) · ECB 8 of 10 (80%)52.9%

Sao Paulo FC SP: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · EC Bahia BA: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Bahia BA's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 62%

1.62

SAO 2 of 6 (33%) · ECB 7 of 10 (70%)27.2%

Sao Paulo FC SP: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · EC Bahia BA: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 52% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Bahia BA's level

SAO PAULO FC SP GOALS

Sao Paulo FC SP Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SAO 5 of 6 (83%) · ECB 7 of 10 (70%)58.7%

Sao Paulo FC SP scored in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · EC Bahia BA conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Bahia BA's level

CARDS

Over 1.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SAO 5 of 6 (83%) · ECB 4 of 6 (67%)75%

Sao Paulo FC SP's games: over 1.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · EC Bahia BA's games: over 1.5 cards in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at EC Bahia BA's level

Left off the list: Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs EC Bahia BA); EC Bahia BA or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (80%) and the records (52%) are 28 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs EC Bahia BA)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.7%

Sao Paulo FC SP goals →

EC Bahia BA goals ↓

0-04%

1-04%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-17%

1-110%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-210%

2-26%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-36%

1-37%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-43%

1-44%

2-42%

3-40.9%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-51%

1-52%

2-50.9%

3-50.4%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SAO PAULO FC SPWWLDWWWWDL2.00 PPG

EC BAHIA BADWLLWWWDWW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SAO PAULO FC SP HOMExEC BAHIA BA AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME3.600.90CONCEDED A GAME0.9040%CLEAN SHEETS30%3.70CORNERS A GAME5.331.90CARDS A GAME2.00

TRENDS

Sao Paulo FC SP have scored in 80% of their games.

EC Bahia BA have scored in 80% of their games.

Sao Paulo FC SP kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

EC Bahia BA kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards