Match details. Carioca, Serie B1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AA Carapebus RJ are 12th on 1 point after 7 games, 3 points behind Audax Rio. A win would take them level on points with Audax Rio. Goytacaz FC RJ are 5th on 14 points after 7 games, level on points with Petrópolis, 4 points clear of Artsul. A win would take them above Petrópolis.
Form. AA Carapebus RJ have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten league games, 0.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L L D. Goytacaz FC RJ have won four, drawn two and lost one of their last seven league games, 2.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D W W L.
The numbers. AA Carapebus RJ score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. AA Carapebus RJ average 10.3 shots (3.7 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Goytacaz FC RJ score 1.1 and concede 0.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Goytacaz FC RJ average 9.4 shots (4.4 on target), 4.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 6 Nov 2021, it finished AA Carapebus RJ 0-1 Goytacaz FC RJ.
The read. Goytacaz FC RJ to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Goytacaz FC RJ the likelier winners; Goytacaz FC RJ are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Goytacaz FC RJ. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Goytacaz FC RJ at 1.15, rated 92% (Goytacaz FC RJ unbeaten in 7 of 8; AA Carapebus RJ failed to win 5 of 5 at home). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: AA Carapebus RJ 0-1 Goytacaz FC RJ (11% chance).
The agreed story. Goytacaz FC RJ or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).