Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC
Match details. Copa Venezuela, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 23:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas.
What's at stake. Aragua FC are 2nd on 10 points after 6 games, 3 points behind Caracas FC, 3 points clear of Yaracuyanos FC. A win would take them level on points with Caracas FC. Aragua FC have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Deportivo La Guaira have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. Aragua FC have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W.
The numbers. Deportivo La Guaira score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Deportivo La Guaira average 11.4 shots (5.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 2.9 cards a game. Aragua FC score 2.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Aragua FC average 10.5 shots (5.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Deportivo La Guaira have won five, drawn three and lost one. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Deportivo La Guaira won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 27 Jun 2024, it finished Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 Aragua FC.
Where it pulls both ways. Aragua FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Deportivo La Guaira: in the last nine meetings, Deportivo La Guaira won five, Aragua FC won one and three were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%; five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Deportivo La Guaira or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Aragua FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Aragua FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Deportivo La Guaira 1-2 Aragua FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).