Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town FC
Match details. Cymru Championship, North, North - 12. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Llanuwchllyn are 10th on 14 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Buckley Town, 3 points clear of Rhyl. A win would take them above Buckley Town. Bala Town FC are 5th on 19 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Mold Alexandra, 1 point clear of Caersws. A win would take them above Mold Alexandra.
Form. Llanuwchllyn have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. In this competition Llanuwchllyn have gone W L L D W W. Bala Town FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W L. In this competition Bala Town FC have gone L D L W L W.
The numbers. Llanuwchllyn score 2.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Bala Town FC score 2.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Llanuwchllyn the likelier winners, but Bala Town FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Llanuwchllyn.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 88% on the records (Llanuwchllyn: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Bala Town FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bala Town FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Llanuwchllyn 2-1 Bala Town FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).