Caerau Ely FC vs Llantwit Major
Match details. Cymru Championship South, South - 12. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Caerau Ely FC are 4th on 19 points after 10 games, level on points with Aberystwyth Town, 2 points clear of Baglan Dragons. A win would take them above Aberystwyth Town. Llantwit Major are 15th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Newport City, 6 points clear of llanelli AFC. A win would take them above Newport City.
Form. Caerau Ely FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Caerau Ely FC have gone W W W W W L. Llantwit Major have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W.
The numbers. Caerau Ely FC score two and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Caerau Ely FC average 5.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Llantwit Major score one and concede 3.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. Llantwit Major average 8.2 shots (3.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Caerau Ely FC have won three, drawn two and lost two. Five of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Caerau Ely FC won one, one was drawn and Llantwit Major won two. The last time they met, on 28 Mar 2026, it finished Caerau Ely FC 4-1 Llantwit Major.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 58%.
The read. No firm call: Caerau Ely FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Caerau Ely FC the likelier winners; Caerau Ely FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Caerau Ely FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 89% on the records (Caerau Ely FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Llantwit Major: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Caerau Ely FC 2-1 Llantwit Major (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).