Jerez CF vs UP Plasencia
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14, Group 14 - 5. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Jerez CF are 6th on 10 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Castuera, 1 point clear of Cabeza Buey. A win would take them above Castuera. UP Plasencia are 16th on 5 points after 6 games, level on points with Quintana, 2 points clear of Atlético Pueblonuevo. A win would take them above Quintana.
Form. Jerez CF have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L L W. UP Plasencia have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D L L L.
The numbers. Jerez CF score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. UP Plasencia score two and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Jerez CF have won four, drawn none and lost two. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Jerez CF won two and UP Plasencia won two. The last time they met, on 15 Jan 2023, it finished Jerez CF 1-0 UP Plasencia.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. UP Plasencia's record still gives them 43% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. Jerez CF to win. A tight game. Jerez CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Jerez CF. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.40, rated 74% (Jerez CF: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; UP Plasencia: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Predicted score: Jerez CF 1-0 UP Plasencia (5% chance).
The agreed story. Jerez CF or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).