Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 12, Group 12 - 1. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CD San Miguel are 8th on 10 points after 6 games, level on points with Los Llanos, 1 point clear of Las Palmas III. A win would take them above Los Llanos. Estrella CF are 12th on 7 points after 6 games, level on points with Unión Sur Yaiza, 1 point clear of Lanzarote. A win would take them above Unión Sur Yaiza.
Form. CD San Miguel have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. Estrella CF have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L.
The numbers. CD San Miguel score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. CD San Miguel average 12.8 shots (4.8 on target), 8.8 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Estrella CF score 0.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Estrella CF average 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The read. CD San Miguel to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CD San Miguel the likelier winners; CD San Miguel are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD San Miguel. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: CD San Miguel or Draw at 1.14, 85% on the records (CD San Miguel unbeaten in 8 of 10; Estrella CF failed to win 5 of 5 away). Leave: CD San Miguel or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Estrella CF Over 0.5 goals (Estrella CF's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); CD San Miguel or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD San Miguel 1-0 Estrella CF (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).