Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Bul FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. NEC FC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W.
The numbers. Bul FC score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Bul FC average 13.9 shots (4.2 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game. NEC FC score 1.5 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. NEC FC average 11.4 shots (3.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
The case against. NEC FC's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Bul FC or the draw. A tight game. Bul FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bul FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 1.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bul FC 1-1 NEC FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).