Match details. Canadian Premier League. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Inter Toronto have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. Atletico Ottawa have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L.
The numbers. Inter Toronto score 2.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Inter Toronto average 2.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Atletico Ottawa score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Atletico Ottawa average 3.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Inter Toronto's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Atletico Ottawa to win. An open game. Atletico Ottawa are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Ottawa. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 78%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Atletico Ottawa or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Atletico Ottawa or draw and over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Inter Toronto 1-2 Atletico Ottawa (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).