FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
Match details. Virsliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time. It is played at Olympic Sports Center of Zemgale, Jelgava.
What's at stake. FS Jelgava are 7th on 32 points after 33 games, 6 points behind Super Nova, 3 points clear of Grobiņa. BFC Daugavpils are 5th on 45 points after 33 games, 2 points behind FK Liepaja, 7 points clear of Super Nova. A win would take them above FK Liepaja. FS Jelgava have nothing left to play for. BFC Daugavpils have nothing left to play for.
Form. FS Jelgava have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L. In this competition FS Jelgava have gone L L L D L W. BFC Daugavpils have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D. In this competition BFC Daugavpils have gone W W D L D L.
The numbers. FS Jelgava score one and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and six games without a goal. FS Jelgava average 4.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game. BFC Daugavpils score 0.5 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. BFC Daugavpils average 12.4 shots (4.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings FS Jelgava have won one, drawn three and lost six. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, two were drawn and BFC Daugavpils won two. The last time they met, on 1 Aug 2026, it finished FS Jelgava 1-2 BFC Daugavpils: FS Jelgava had 11 shots to 23, 48% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The read. BFC Daugavpils to win. A tight game. BFC Daugavpils are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour BFC Daugavpils; the meetings favour BFC Daugavpils. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: BFC Daugavpils or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); BFC Daugavpils Over 0.5 goals (BFC Daugavpils's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); BFC Daugavpils or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FS Jelgava 0-1 BFC Daugavpils (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).