Match details. Serie C, Group C, Girone C - 11. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni.
What's at stake. Inter Milano U23 are 11th on 13 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Salernitana, 1 point clear of AZ Picerno. A win would take them above Salernitana. ASD Sorrento 1945 are 3rd on 19 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Bari, 2 points clear of Audace Cerignola. A win would take them above Bari.
Form. Inter Milano U23 have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. ASD Sorrento 1945 have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L. In this competition ASD Sorrento 1945 have gone D L W L L W.
The numbers. Inter Milano U23 score 1.9 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Inter Milano U23 average 12.5 shots (5.4 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.1 cards a game. ASD Sorrento 1945 score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. ASD Sorrento 1945 average 3.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The case against. Inter Milano U23's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. ASD Sorrento 1945 to win. An open game. ASD Sorrento 1945 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour ASD Sorrento 1945. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Inter Milano U23 1-2 ASD Sorrento 1945 (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).