Burnley FC Women vs Aston Villa WFC
Match details. FA Womens League Cup, Group Stage. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Turf Moor, Burnley.
Form. Burnley FC Women have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L. In this competition Burnley FC Women have gone W. Aston Villa WFC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W. In this competition Aston Villa WFC have gone W W.
The numbers. Burnley FC Women score 4.5 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. Aston Villa WFC score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Aston Villa WFC average 7.2 shots (2.8 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 13% against the records' 49%.
The read. No firm call: Burnley FC Women are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Burnley FC Women the likelier winners; Burnley FC Women are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Burnley FC Women. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Burnley FC Women or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Aston Villa WFC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Burnley FC Women); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Burnley FC Women 3-0 Aston Villa WFC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).