Match details. Veikkausliiga, Relegation. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 16:30 Lagos time. It is played at Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki.
What's at stake. It is played over two legs.
Form. PK-35 Helsinki have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. FF Jaro have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D D L.
The numbers. PK-35 Helsinki score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. PK-35 Helsinki average 9.8 shots (3.6 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game. FF Jaro score 0.3 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. FF Jaro average 4.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The read. PK-35 Helsinki to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make PK-35 Helsinki the likelier winners; PK-35 Helsinki are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PK-35 Helsinki. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 88% on the records (PK-35 Helsinki: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; FF Jaro: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: FF Jaro Under 1.5 Goals at 1.42. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: PK-35 Helsinki 1-0 FF Jaro (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).