Match details. 1. Liga. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D. Leningradets have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L.
The numbers. FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk score 0.6 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk average 3.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Leningradets score 1.1 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Leningradets average 2.8 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk the likelier winners, but Leningradets are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Leningradets.
The case against. Leningradets's record still gives them 59% to win.
The read. FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk the likelier winners; Leningradets are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Leningradets. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Over 0.5 goals (FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk 1-1 Leningradets (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).