AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans FC
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:15 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. The referee is Willy Delajod.
What's at stake. AJ Auxerre are 13th on 9 points after 7 games, level on points with Toulouse, 2 points clear of Strasbourg. A win would take them above Toulouse. Le Mans FC are 16th on 6 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Angers, 2 points clear of Estac Troyes. A win would take them above Angers.
Team news. AJ Auxerre are without A. Diousse (knee injury), S. Fofana (groin injury), R. Labeau Lascary (injury), B. Okoh (knee injury), M. Senaya (hamstring injury), T. Siwe (muscle injury). Le Mans FC are without A. Bourabaa (ankle injury), E. Colas (injury), Y. Larouci (groin injury), H. Voyer (thigh injury), A. Bourabaa (ankle injury), E. Colas (injury).
Form. AJ Auxerre have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. Le Mans FC have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D D.
The numbers. AJ Auxerre score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. AJ Auxerre average 10.2 shots (4.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Le Mans FC score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Le Mans FC average 8.8 shots (3.8 on target), 2.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings AJ Auxerre have won two, drawn one and lost one. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 10 Jan 2020, it finished AJ Auxerre 1-0 Le Mans FC: AJ Auxerre had 15 shots to 12, 52% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Le Mans FC's record still gives them 21% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. AJ Auxerre to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make AJ Auxerre the likelier winners; AJ Auxerre are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AJ Auxerre; the meetings favour AJ Auxerre. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. Best bet: AJ Auxerre or Draw at 1.33, 74% on the records (AJ Auxerre unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; Le Mans FC failed to win 6 of 7). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AJ Auxerre 2-1 Le Mans FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).