Stevenage FC vs Milton Keynes Dons
Match details. League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Broadhall Way, Stevenage.
What's at stake. Stevenage FC are 9th on 15 points after 10 games, 3 points behind Oxford United, level on points with Leicester. A win would take them level on points with Oxford United. Milton Keynes Dons are 20th on 9 points after 10 games, level on points with Doncaster, level on points with Peterborough. A win would take them above Doncaster.
Form. Stevenage FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Milton Keynes Dons have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W.
The numbers. Stevenage FC score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Stevenage FC average 12.5 shots (4.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Milton Keynes Dons score 1.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Milton Keynes Dons average 12.2 shots (2.9 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Stevenage FC have won one, drawn two and lost three. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, two were drawn and Milton Keynes Dons won two. The last time they met, on 6 Nov 2021, it finished Stevenage FC 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%; five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Milton Keynes Dons's record still gives them 27% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Not everything agrees on goals: five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Stevenage FC to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Stevenage FC the likelier winners; Stevenage FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Stevenage FC or Draw (1UP) at 1.22, 74% on the records (Stevenage FC scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3; led or was unbeaten in 6 of 8). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Stevenage FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 5.5 Goals (Stevenage FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Stevenage FC 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).