Match details. Copa do Brasil, Women. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 23:00 Lagos time.
Form. Atletico Mineiro MG have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W. SC Internacional RS have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W D.
The numbers. Atletico Mineiro MG score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atletico Mineiro MG average 18.7 shots (8.2 on target), 7.9 corners and 1.2 cards a game. SC Internacional RS score 2.3 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. SC Internacional RS average 15.1 shots (6.1 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make SC Internacional RS the likelier winners, but Atletico Mineiro MG are the stronger side on form and the table.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Atletico Mineiro MG 1-2 SC Internacional RS (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (SC Internacional RS the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Atletico Mineiro MG in their last cup games: won 2-1 v Cruzeiro EC MG, drew 1-1 at Cruzeiro EC MG. SC Internacional RS in their last cup games: lost 1-3 at Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS, drew 0-0 v Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).