Match details. Copa do Brasil, Women. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 22:00 Lagos time.
Form. Red Bull Bragantino SP have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. Ferroviaria SP have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D.
The numbers. Red Bull Bragantino SP score 1.7 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Red Bull Bragantino SP average 10.2 shots (4.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Ferroviaria SP score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. Ferroviaria SP average 15.5 shots (5.8 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Red Bull Bragantino SP 1-1 Ferroviaria SP (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Red Bull Bragantino SP the favourite), goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).