Carrick Rangers vs Newry City AFC
Match details. League Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Loughview Leisure Arena, Carrickfergus.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Carrick Rangers have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. Newry City AFC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W D.
The numbers. Carrick Rangers score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Carrick Rangers average 9.6 shots (4.6 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Newry City AFC score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Newry City AFC average 11.4 shots (5.8 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Carrick Rangers have won five, drawn none and lost four. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Carrick Rangers won three and Newry City AFC won one. The last time they met, on 4 Jan 2025, it finished Carrick Rangers 4-3 Newry City AFC.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 8% against the records' 49%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%; five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Newry City AFC are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Newry City AFC the likelier winners; Newry City AFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Newry City AFC.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Carrick Rangers 1-1 Newry City AFC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).