EC Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo FC SP
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador. The referee is Anderson Daronco.
What's at stake. EC Bahia BA are 7th on 50 points after 32 games, level on points with Atletico-MG, 4 points clear of Santos. A win would take them above Atletico-MG. Sao Paulo FC SP are 9th on 43 points after 32 games, 3 points behind Santos, 2 points clear of RB Bragantino. A win would take them level on points with Santos.
Team news. EC Bahia BA are without Kanu (yellow cards), Leo Vieira (knee injury), Kanu (yellow cards), Leo Vieira (knee injury). Sao Paulo FC SP are without Artur (inactive), N. Bosshardt (inactive), Buta (knee injury), Cauly (inactive), D. Duarte (knee injury), Iago Borduchi (yellow cards).
Form. EC Bahia BA have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L. In this competition EC Bahia BA have gone D L W L L W. Sao Paulo FC SP have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. In this competition Sao Paulo FC SP have gone D W W L L W.
The numbers. EC Bahia BA score 1.6 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. EC Bahia BA average 12.8 shots (3.9 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Sao Paulo FC SP score one and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sao Paulo FC SP average 14.9 shots (3.8 on target), 7.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings EC Bahia BA have won two, drawn two and lost six. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, EC Bahia BA won one, one was drawn and Sao Paulo FC SP won two. The last time they met, on 3 May 2026, it finished EC Bahia BA 2-2 Sao Paulo FC SP: EC Bahia BA had 20 shots to 18, 62% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: EC Bahia BA are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Sao Paulo FC SP; the meetings favour Sao Paulo FC SP.
The case against. Sao Paulo FC SP's record still gives them 47% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The read. EC Bahia BA or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. EC Bahia BA are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sao Paulo FC SP; the meetings favour Sao Paulo FC SP.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.38, 72% on the records (EC Bahia BA: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; Sao Paulo FC SP: under 3.5 goals in 10 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: EC Bahia BA 1-1 Sao Paulo FC SP (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).