Braga vs Gent
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio Municipal de Braga. The referee is A. Treimanis.
What's at stake. Braga are 35th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with FC Iberia 1999, level on points with Kauno Žalgiris. A win would take them above FC Iberia 1999. Gent are 13th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Brann, level on points with Twente. A win would take them above Brann.
Form. Braga have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. Gent have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D.
The numbers. Braga score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Braga average 10.3 shots (3.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Gent score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Gent average 11.5 shots (4.2 on target), 6.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Braga have won none, drawn two and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 24 Nov 2016, it finished Braga 2-2 Gent: Braga had 9 shots to 14, 26% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Braga the likelier winners, but Gent are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Gent. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The case against. Gent's record still gives them 53% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. Braga or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Braga the likelier winners; Gent are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Gent. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.27, 75% on the records (Braga: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Gent: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Braga 1-1 Gent (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).