Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. The referee is A. Nobre.
What's at stake. Ajax are 25th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with FK Crvena Zvezda, level on points with Borac Banja Luka. A win would take them above FK Crvena Zvezda. Atalanta are 5th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Trabzonspor, level on points with Mjallby AIF. A win would take them above Trabzonspor.
Form. Ajax have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W. Atalanta have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L.
The numbers. Ajax score 2.8 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Ajax average 17.4 shots (8.1 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 65% of the ball. Atalanta score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atalanta average 12.4 shots (4.5 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Ajax have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 9 Dec 2020, it finished Ajax 0-1 Atalanta: Ajax had 12 shots to 8, 63% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 77% on the records (Ajax: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Ajax or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Ajax or Both Teams Score (no result call); Ajax or Draw & Over 1.5 (no result call). Predicted score: Ajax 1-2 Atalanta (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).