Viktoria Plzen vs PFC Levski Sofia
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Doosan Arena, Pilsner. The referee is Alejandro Hernandez.
What's at stake. Viktoria Plzen are 31st on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim, level on points with Marseille. A win would take them above 1899 Hoffenheim. PFC Levski Sofia are 24th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Lillestrom, level on points with Hapoel Beer Sheva. A win would take them above Lillestrom.
Team news. Viktoria Plzen are without P. Adu (coach's decision), V. Jemelka (knee injury), J. Paluska (coach's decision), M. Tvrdon (off the roster), A. Sojka (health problems), P. Adu (coach's decision). PFC Levski Sofia are without P. Hristov (off the roster), O. Kamdem (off the roster), R. Kirilov (knee injury), A. Mitkov (injury), M. Sangare (off the roster), G. Trdin (injury).
Form. Viktoria Plzen have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. PFC Levski Sofia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L D. In this competition PFC Levski Sofia have gone D L.
The numbers. Viktoria Plzen score two and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Viktoria Plzen average 13.4 shots (4.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. PFC Levski Sofia score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last seven away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. PFC Levski Sofia average 11.2 shots (2.2 on target), 3.5 corners and 0.7 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.
The case against. PFC Levski Sofia's record still gives them 47% to win.
The read. Viktoria Plzen or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Both teams' records favour PFC Levski Sofia. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 89% on the records (Viktoria Plzen: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; PFC Levski Sofia: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Viktoria Plzen 2-1 PFC Levski Sofia (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).